Inspired by my last entry about the co-inlinking between different countries I thought I’d try to predict the co-inlinking to Finland and some other countries based on the Internet penetration of these countries. In my previous entry the co-inlinking values (allthough only few of them) show a tendency of a long tail:
The Internet penetration is not as clear, but could this still be used to predict the co-inlinking if we assume it will follow a long tail?
We know the Internet penetration of a set of countries and we also know the co-inlinking to Finland and some key countries (marked with red dots in the figure above). Can we use this to predict the co-inlinking to Finland and the rest of the countries assuming the gaph will follow a long tail?
The Internet penetration of these countries is as follows (according to Internet World Stats):
Benin, 1.8%; Burkina Faso, 0.5%; Central African Republic, 0.3%; Chad, 0.6%; Congo, 1.8%; Gabon, 5.5%; Guinea, 0.5%; Liberia, 0.0%; Madagascar, 0.5%; Mali, 0.8%; Mauritania, 0.9%; Sierra Leone, 0.2%; Somalia, 1.0%; Togo, 5.5%; Uganda, 6.4%; Western Sahara, (no data available); Zimbabwe, 10.9%.
From this we can try to predict the co-inlinking:
Again, we have the four points that we already know. The most difficult part is probably to try to predict where the curve will turn to a tail. Should Botswana be higher with its Internet penetration of 10.9% or is the tipping point at say 11%?
In the following figure we can once more see the predicted co-inlinking (blue line) and the actual co-inlinking (red line) as measured using AltaVista search engine:
This analysis used visual estimates rather than exact mathematics to predict the co-inlinking and as we can see the prediction is quite close to the actual figures. But the question is, does the co-inlinking really have something to do with the Internet penetration or are there some other reasons for South Africa to be often co-inlinked to together with Finland? Zimbabwe has a rather high Internet penetration, almost as high as South Africa. Shouldn’t it therefore be more often co-inlinked together with Finland or was the tipping point just between these? Please, feel free to comment and share your opinion.